Spatiotemporal characteristics, regional disparities, and distributional dynamics of China’s economic growth in coastal areas: evidence from the DMSP‑OLS‑like data of 114 cities

The coordinated development of regions is an important issue in China’s current economic development. Based on DMSP-OLS-like data from 1992 to 2023, this paper describes the spatiotemporal characteristics of economic development in China’s coastal regions. This paper further employs Dagum’s Gini coefficient and its decomposition, kernel density estimation, traditional Markov chains, and spatial Markov chains to explore the regional differences and dynamic evolution characteristics of economic development in China’s coastal regions. The main research findings are as follows: (1) There is an ascending trend of economic development in coastal areas of China, but there are spatial imbalances. (2) The overall regional gap of economic development in coastal regions of China is on the decline, and hypervariable density is the main source of the gap in economic development. (3) The economic development of the overall coastal areas of China is exhibiting a trend of polarization. (4) The economic development in coastal regions of China exhibits a phenomenon of club convergence. (5) Being neighboring to economically developed cities will promote local economic growth, while being adjacent to economically underdeveloped cities will hinder local economic growth. This research examines the evolution trend and source of the development gap in China’s coastal regions, thereby laying a foundation for mitigating this gap and fostering coordinated development in coastal areas.

Link: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-025-01423-0